Old World vultures in Asia have experienced drastic population declines due to factors such as the non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug diclofenac, food scarcity, habitat loss, and climate change. Understanding how climate change affects the climatic niche of vultures is vital for effective conservation. We used species occurrence data from eBird, field survey data, and shared-socioeconomic pathway-based climatic layers to predict potential current and future climatic niches for nine Old World vultures. Our findings indicated that precipitation patterns of the coldest quarter, annual temperature range, and precipitation seasonality are critical determinants for future climatic niches of vultures. Models showed high predictive accuracy, with area under the curve values ranging from 0.80 to 0.98. Future projections show significant contractions of suitable climatic niches for critically endangered species such as the Whiterumped Vulture (Gyps bengalensis) and Indian Vulture (Gyps indicus), with predicted population reductions of 27–49% by 2060–2080. Along with the ongoing captive breeding programs in Asia, it is essential to establish vulture safe zones to support the reintroduction of captive-bred populations. The shrinking future climatic niches help identify areas suitable for future vulture conservation in Southern Asia.

The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus), classified as a vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List, is an important mammal species found in the state of Sikkim, India. Studies carried out in Khangchendzonga National Park have documented the presence of these bears, highlighting their crucial conservation importance in the region. The population of Black bears are restricted to small habitat patches, which over the years have become fragmented by road networks and urban settlements. In such fragmented landscapes, connecting corridors play a crucial role in maintaining wildlife movement and genetic diversity. We assessed connectivity between eight protected areas in Sikkim using MaxENT and Circuitscape. 65 black bear presence locations (collected through Camera traps and sign surveys) and 24 environmental variables were used to model the corridors. Habitat suitability map was generated through MaxENT modelling approach. Our analysis suggests that there are multiple options to maintain connectivity for black bears in Sikkim. We mapped seven corridors and five pinch points (bottlenecks in connectivity), and calculated metrics to estimate their quality and importance. Our model output was supported by high AUC value (0.921) and field validation by questionnaire surveys and sign surveys to assess black bear presence and habitat use. Our results showed that 300 km² of the suitable regions are within the protected areas in Sikkim. The highest quality linkages as measured by the ratio of cost-weighted distance to Euclidean distance (CWD:EucD) and cost-weighted distance to least-cost path (CWD:LCP) were Khangchendzonga and Barsey, suggesting that these protected areas (National Parks and Wildlife Sanctuaries) and the developed corridors play important role in maintaining connectivity. We mapped pinch-points which are habitat where black bear movement is restricted due to unfavorable environments, linear infrastructures, built up/settlements or a combination of factors and our model predicted pinch points near few settlement areas; Mangan, Dikchu, Pangthang, Kabi, Yuksum and Lachen. Ground truthing confirmed that these areas also coincide with Black bear conflict zones in Sikkim. 

Climate change poses a threat to endemic species by altering their habitats and reducing their chances of survival. These species, uniquely adapted to their environments, face the risk of extinction as climate patterns shift rapidly. Western Ghats is one of the global biodiversity hotspots and home to diverse endemic species. Despite the unique species present in the Western Ghats, limited studies have attempted to understand the climate-related risks to them. This study employs an ensemble modeling approach to assess the current distribution and predict the future climatic niches of 29 endemic bird species in the Western Ghats. Results indicate a substantial loss of climatic niche for most species under both scenarios, with certain species experiencing a decline of more than 70% in their climatic niche. The four laughingthrush species are exceptionally vulnerable, potentially losing up to 99% of their suitable climatic niche. Furthermore, we emphasize the critical importance of mid-altitude regions with Wet Evergreen Forest in the Western Ghats, as potential climate-change refugia for these species. Ensuring that the temperature remains below 2°C is imperative, necessitating urgent conservation efforts, including habitat preservation. This study provides essential insights to inform conservation strategies and underscores the necessity for continued research and proactive measures to safeguard the Western Ghats' unique biodiversity in the face of escalating climate change challenges.

Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) is used to identify a species’ potential current and future distribution. While numerous global studies have reported species distribution changes in various future climate change scenarios, regional relevance has often been overlooked. In this study, we conducted a systematic literature review to assess the future climate change impacts on India’s biodiversity across all biogeographic zones. Our findings revealed a significant increase in research on climate change related SDM after 2015. These studies were published mainly in ecological, and biodiversity conservation journals. We found that (a) The Himalayan region is the most studied biogeographic zone (n = 49), followed by the Western Ghats (n = 15). (b) Plants are the most studied taxa (n = 77), followed by invertebrates (n = 11). (c) Gaps in the literature regarding the climate change impacts on the distribution of amphibians (n = 2) and reptiles (n = 1), and studies specific to Islands (n = 0) and Coastal (n = 2) biogeographic zones. (d) 60% of studies did not mention or calculate uncertainties arising from data gaps and model parameters. We highlight the need for more studies dedicated to lesser-studied taxa. We recommend that in the future the quality of SDM-related studies be critically reviewed to ensure that they are reproducible.

Pied cuckoo Clamator jacobinus (Boddart, 1783) is a migratory, brood parasitic bird found in the Indian subcontinent and Africa. The arrival of Pied cuckoo in India is linked to the onset of monsoon in India. It makes a sudden appearance in northern India in May or early June, indicating the imminent arrival of the monsoon with its unmistakably loud metallic calls. Little information is available on how environmental factors might be affecting its migration. We used maximum entropy modelling to model the monthly and seasonal distribution pattern and identify major bioclimatic factors influencing the Pied cuckoo’s distribution in India. The predicted output shows the species distribution peaking in the months of June–September and no presence in winter in northern India. Water vapour pressure was the significant contributing variable (83.8% in April) for species to arrive in northern parts of India. It signifies the arrival of the monsoon. In July, it was NDVI (26.4%). Windspeed (42.8% in August) and water vapour pressures have contributed the highest in the months of August–September. Our approach provides a more concise understanding of monthly distributions of Pied cuckoo.

Climate change influences species distribution and is regarded as a major threat to biodiversity. Hornbills (Family: Bucerotidae) are large tropical birds in Asia and Africa. They are seed dispersers known as forest farmers because they help maintain the ecological community structure by allowing forest regeneration. They are keystone species, and their presence in a forest implies a healthy ecosystem. Range shifts due to climate change is a serious threat because their long-term survival is already imperilled by anthropogenic disturbances. This study models the current and future potential climatic niches of eight of the nine hornbill species present in India. We used GBIF-mediated species presence records along with eight WorldClim V2.1 bioclimatic variables to model the current climatically suitable areas and projected it into the future (mid-century, i.e., 2041–60 and end of the century, i.e., 2081–2100) for different CMIP6 based Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, 370 and 585). Range shifts, centroid changes, and the impact of current land use practices for each of the eight species under various climatic conditions were also examined. The Area Under Curve (AUC) values for final models ranged between 0.736 and 0.994. Result indicates that majority of species' climatic niche shift is towards the west, followed by northwest and northern shifts. The species are expected to lose >40% of their suitable present climatic niche under the SSP 585 scenario in 2081–2100. Natural areas were found to be climatically suitable for hornbills throughout the study area, implying the merit of conserving their existing habitats. Our research provides detailed information on how the distribution of Indian Hornbills may change because of future climatic conditions. Detailed spatial and temporal distribution and range shift patterns will aid in a targeted approach for conserving hornbills and their habitat in a changing climate.